{"id":121,"date":"2021-07-29T19:08:09","date_gmt":"2021-07-29T17:08:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatechangedamsafety.com\/?page_id=121"},"modified":"2021-08-04T08:55:54","modified_gmt":"2021-08-04T06:55:54","slug":"managing-time-dependent-risks","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/climatechangedamsafety.com\/index.php\/my-research\/published-papers\/managing-time-dependent-risks\/","title":{"rendered":"Managing time dependent risks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Dams are critical infrastructures whose safety must be properly managed. Traditional decision-making approaches often assume the stationarity of factors defining risk. However, dam risk is susceptible to evolve with time. Risk can no longer be considered a static but a time-dependent concept which cumulative value must be reduced for different timescales. A broader perspective to dynamically evaluate time issues in the prioritization of measures is thus required.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A new approach has been proposed in this paper (<strong><em>Comprehensive decision-making approach for managing time dependent dam risks<\/em><\/strong>) for dam risk management in the long term that considers the potential evolution of risk. A new time-dependent risk indicator that allows assessing the efficiency of adaptation measures in optimally reducing dam risks has been defined: the Aggregated Adjusted Cost per Statistical Life Saved (AACSLS). Its use makes it possible to better design risk reduction measures and to plan the implementation sequence that maximizes their effectiveness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/climatechangedamsafety.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Paper_3_image-1024x550.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-251\" width=\"512\" height=\"275\" srcset=\"https:\/\/climatechangedamsafety.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Paper_3_image-1024x550.png 1024w, https:\/\/climatechangedamsafety.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Paper_3_image-300x161.png 300w, https:\/\/climatechangedamsafety.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Paper_3_image-768x412.png 768w, https:\/\/climatechangedamsafety.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Paper_3_image-1536x825.png 1536w, https:\/\/climatechangedamsafety.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Paper_3_image-2048x1099.png 2048w, https:\/\/climatechangedamsafety.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Paper_3_image-500x268.png 500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 512px) 100vw, 512px\" \/><figcaption>f-N points representing the estimation of failure probability and loss of life based on the risk results from 2005 to 2099<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The methodology has been applied to the case study of a Spanish dam under the effects of climate change. Different risk reduction measures have been proposed and their effects have been analyzed for a specific time horizon. The use of the AACSLS indicator has allowed identifying the prioritization of measures that optimizes the allocation of economic resources in the long term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Reference<\/strong>: Fluix\u00e1-Sanmart\u00edn, J., Escuder-Bueno, I., Morales-Torres, A., and Castillo-Rodr\u00edguez, J. T. (2020). Comprehensive decision-making approach for managing time dependent dam risks. <em>Reliability Engineering &amp; System Safety<\/em>, 203, 107100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0951832020306013\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0951832020306013\">Link to this article in Reliability Engineering &amp; System Safety<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This article can be downloaded here:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"https:\/\/climatechangedamsafety.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/3_Comprehensive-decision-making-approach-for-managing-time-dependent_JFluixa.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"PDF embed\"><\/object><a href=\"https:\/\/climatechangedamsafety.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/3_Comprehensive-decision-making-approach-for-managing-time-dependent_JFluixa.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button\" download>Download<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dams are critical infrastructures whose safety must be properly managed. Traditional decision-making approaches often assume the stationarity of factors defining risk. However, dam risk is susceptible to evolve with time. Risk can no longer be considered a static but a time-dependent concept which cumulative value must be reduced for different timescales. A broader perspective to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":36,"menu_order":3,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-121","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry","post-preview"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatechangedamsafety.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/121","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatechangedamsafety.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatechangedamsafety.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatechangedamsafety.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatechangedamsafety.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=121"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/climatechangedamsafety.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/121\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":398,"href":"https:\/\/climatechangedamsafety.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/121\/revisions\/398"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatechangedamsafety.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/36"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatechangedamsafety.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=121"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}